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Applied Econometrics

The Applied Econometrics - Essentials training course, focuses on the development and use of single-equation econometric models that enable analysts to better understand their economic/business landscape and to improve their ability to make sound economic/business forecasts. Through hands-on exercises, you will gain knowledge of the practical elements of applied econometric analysis. The overall aims are to sharpen the quantitative, statistical, and analytical skills of dealing with problems and issues related to business and economics as well as to improve communication skills in reporting findings to decision makers.

The Applied Econometrics - Advanced training course will enable analysts to better understand their economic/business landscape and to improve their ability to make sound forecasts. Through applications, you will gain knowledge of the practical elements of applied econometric analysis. The overall aims are to sharpen the quantitative, statistical, and analytical skills in dealing with problems and issues related to business and economics as well as to improve communication skills in reporting findings to decision-makers.

By attending Applied Econometrics - Essentials workshop, delegates will learn to:

  • Develop and use single-equation econometric models
  • Improve your ability to make sound forecasts
  • Sharpen your quantitative, statistical, and analytical skills
  • Improve the effectiveness of how you translate technical information for key decision-makers
  • Use SAS software to conduct econometric analyses

By attending Applied Econometrics - Advanced workshop, delegates will learn to:

  • Detect and circumvent collinearity and ill-conditioning problems in econometric models
  • Detect and assess data outliers and leverage points
  • Detect structural change and test the stability of structural coefficients
  • Incorporate dynamic elements in econometric models principally through the use of distributed lags
  • Use Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized ARCH (GARCH) models
  • Use qualitative choice models and censored response models
  • Use simultaneous-equation models
  • Use seemingly unrelated regression models

For Applied Econometrics - Essentials:

  • Basic knowledge of SAS software, including SAS procedures such as PROC UNIVARIATE and PROC REG
  • Basic knowledge of statistics, especially in conjunction with tests of hypotheses (t tests and F tests) and regression analysis
  • Familiar with regression analysis
  • Basics of economic and business concepts

For Applied Econometrics - Advanced:

  • Basic knowledge of SAS software, including SAS procedures such as PROC REG, PROC AUTOREG, and PROC MODEL
  • Know the equivalent of the material covered in the Applied Econometrics - Essentials course, specifically data issues inherent with econometric models, the development and estimation of single-equation econometric models, hypothesis testing associated with these models, the construction and interpretation of dummy variables, and the detection and circumvention of serial correlation (autocorrelation) and heteroscedasticity
  • Some knowledge pertaining to developing and evaluating ex-post and ex-ante forecasts

Academicians, economists, forecasters, and government and business analysts

COURSE AGENDA

Applied Econometrics - Essentials
(Duration : 3 Days)

1

The Nature of Applied Econometrics

  • What is applied econometrics?
  • Course of action - development of formal quantitative models
  • Disciplines in applied econometrics
  • Empirical models and modeling approaches
  • Components of applied econometrics
  • Products of applied econometrics
  • Generic Multiple Regression Model
  • Software considerations
  • Communication and aims for the analyst
2

Data Considerations and Ordinary Least Squares Estimation of Single-Equation Econometric Models

  • Data
  • Getting a feel for the data
  • Massaging the data
  • Estimation of the Simple Linear Regression Model
  • SAS output of the simple linear regression of total personal bankruptcy (TPB) on real gros domestic product (RGDP)
  • Estimation of the Multiple Regression Model - the Generic Single-Equation Econometric Model
  • Example: SAS output of the demand function for shrimp
3

Interpretation and Use of Estimated Coefficients and Forecasting with Single-Equation Econometric Models

  • Mathematical and statistical considerations in applied econometrics
  • Interpretation of estimated coefficients
  • Partial correlation coefficients
  • Alternatives to least squares estimation
  • Criteria for estimators
  • Interval estimation and confidence intervals
  • Forecasting with single-equation econometric models
  • Forecast evaluation
  • Illustration of out-of-sample forecasting witht he demand curve for shrimp
4

Common Tests of Hypotheses in Applied Econometrics

  • Introduction: preliminary statistical elements
  • Basics of hypothesis testing
  • Tests of hypotheses regarding structural parameters of econometric models
  • Tests of normality of residuals
  • Tests of hypotheses associated with the specification of econometric models
5

Use of Dummy (Indicator) Variables in Applied Econometrics

  • Intercept shifters
  • Slope shifters
  • intercept shifters and slope shifters
  • Final thoughts about the use of dummy (indicator) variables
  • Additional readings
6

Diagnostic Checks - Autocorrelation or Serial Correlation

  • Autocorrelation or serial correlation
  • Tests for serial correlation
  • Sample problem: the demand for shrimp
  • Sample problem: the demand for gasoline
  • Test for serial correlation in the presence of a lagged dependent variable
  • Summary remarks about the issue of serial correlation
7

Diagnostic Checks - Heteroscedasticity

  • Weighted least squares (WLS)
  • Example of econometric analysis with heteroscedasticity
  • Multiplicative and additive heteroscedasticity
  • Common tests of heteroscedasticity
  • Maximum likelihood (ML) as opposed to weighted least squares (WLS)
  • Recommended procedures to combat heteroscedasticity
Applied Econometrics - Advanced
(Duration : 3 Days)

1

Detecting and Circumventing Collinearity or Ill-Conditioning Problems

  • Introduction
  • Collinearity diagnostics
  • Solutions to the collinearity problem
2

Detecting and Assessing Data Outliers and Leverage Points

  • Background
  • Influence diagnostics
  • Solutions to the problem of influential observations
  • Robust regression techniques
3

Detecting Structural Change and Testing for the Stability of Structural Coefficients

  • Diagnostic tests for structural change
  • Illustration of sequential Chow tests
  • Illustration of the Farley, Hinrich, and McGuire test
  • Illustration of recursive coefficients, recursive residuals, CUSUM, and CUSUMSQ tests
4

Incorporating Dynamics through the Use of Distributed Lags

  • Approaches to distributed lag models
  • Sample problem: free-form lag
  • Sample problem: geometric lag
  • Sample problem: polynomial distributed lag
  • Partial adjustment model
  • Sample problem: partial adjustment model
5

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticy (ARCH) and Generalized ARCH (GARCH) Models

  • ARCH(q) model
  • Sample problem: ARCH(q) model
  • GARCH model
  • GARCH-M model variations (linear, square root, and log)
  • GARCH model with autoregressive errors
  • Example: ARCH/GARCH models for three month returns of SP500
  • Threshold GARCH model
  • Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model
  • Example: exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model
  • Estimation of GARCH models
6

Qualitative Choice and Censored Response Models

  • Limited dependent variables
  • Probit/logit models
  • Computational methods and statistical considerations for empirical analysis
  • Sample problem: use of probit analysis
  • Sample problem: use of logit analysis
  • Censored response models
  • Censored samples: use of the Tobit model
  • Sample problem with the Tobit model
  • Heckman sample selection procedure
  • Sample problem with the Heckman sample selection procedure
7

Simultaneous Equation Models

  • Modeling approaches
  • Simultaneous systems
  • Simultaneous structural models
  • Simultaneous structural models
  • Identification issues
  • Example of order and rank conditions
  • Common methods of estimation
  • Simultaneous equation model of demand and supply relationships
  • Analytically derived reduced forms
  • Microeconomics specification of simultaneous equation models
  • Final form of the system
  • Determining whether a system is stable
  • Example of stability condition: Klein Model
  • Specification, estimation, and simulation of a dynamic macroeconomic simultaneous equation model
8

Seemingly Unrelated Regression Models

  • Seemingly unrelated regression models
  • Example of seemingly unrelated regression models
  • Example: demand for a cereal product from five retailers: HEB, Publix, Food Lion, Fred Myer, and Meijer
  • Seemingly unrelated regression models with restrictions
  • Rotterdam Model
  • Linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA/AIDS) model
  • Example: demand interrelationships for spaghetti sauces: LA/AIDS model
  • Demand for spaghetti sauce example: use of PROC MODEL
9

Pooling of Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data

  • To pool or not to pool
  • Single-Equation model specification associated with the pooling of time-series and cross-sectional data or the use of panel data
  • Typical assumptions when dealing with the pooling of time-series and cross-sectional data: Parks model
  • Typical assumptions when dealing with the pooling of time-series and cross-sectional data: error components model
  • Sample problem: the use of pooled OLS, Parks procedure, and error components procedure
  • Typical assumptions when dealing with the pooling of time-series and cross-sectional data: covariance model
  • Fixed and random effects
  • Sample problem: the use of the ANACOVA or LSDV model and the use of the one-way random effects model
  • Seemingly unrelated regression model (fixed and random effects)
  • Sample problem: the use of seemingly unrelated regression
10

SAS Procedures Associated with Advanced Topics in Applied Econometrics

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