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# Forecasting using Trend Analysis

( Duration: 2 Days )

The purpose of Forecasting using Trend Analysis training course is to cover the fundamentals and principles of linear programming, forecasting, trend analysis and simulation. This training provides a modern comprehensive survey of the principles and applications of forecasting methods in the world of commerce, public and private sectors. This course covers all necessary theory for a rigorous statistics approach, but all basic content is presented in an intuitive style supported with applications drawn from a wide variety of real sources and case studies.

Coverage ranges from a review of basic statistics, to thorough discussions of basic methods such as smoothing, trend, and regression, up to advanced techniques such as ARIMA, MARIMA, Neural Networks, Econometrics, and Intervention Analysis. The course builds a solid foundation to create a forecasting framework for your need.

The Forecasting using Trend Analysis workshop is appropriate for anyone in Business, Economics, IT, or Engineering.

1

## INTRODUCTION TO Forecasting And TRENDS Analysis

• Forecasting Models and Trend Analysis Applied
• Subjective Models
• Delphi Methods
• Causal Models
• Regression Models
• Time Series Models
• Moving Averages
• Exponential Smoothing
• Elements of a Good Forecast
• Steps in the Forecasting Process
• Techniques for Trend
• Measures of Forecast Error
• Forecast error
• Forecasting Performance
• How good is the forecast?
• Mean Forecast Error (MFE or Bias)
• Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
• Mean squared error (MSE)
• Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
• Absolute deviation
• Bias
• Tracking signal
• Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method
• Defining the Method
2

## Modeling And Analysis

• The basic steps in a forecasting task
• Associative Forecasting
• Predictor variables – used to predict values of variable interest
• Regression – technique for fitting a line to a set of points
• Least squares line – minimizes sum of squared deviations around the line
• Seasonality
• Regression
• Multiple Regression
• Scatter Diagram
• Confidence Intervals
• Error Sum of Squares (EMS)
• The Components of a Time Series
• Elements of a Good Forecast
• Cycles, Seasonal Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing Models
• Variables
• Constraints
• Coefficients
• Steps in the Forecasting Process
3

## Techniques For Trend Analysis

• Common Nonlinear Trends
• Applications of forecasting
• Simple moving average
• Cumulative moving average
• Weighted moving average
• Exponential moving average
• Why is it exponential?
• Double exponential smoothing
• Modified moving average
• Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
• Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
• Extrapolation
• Linear prediction
• Trend estimation
• Growth curve
• Trend-Corrected Exponential Smoothing (Holt’s Model)
• Trend- and Seasonality-Corrected Exponential Smoothing
• Time-Critical Decision Modeling and Analysis
• Neural Network: For time series forecasting, the prediction model
• Least Squares Method
• Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
• Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
4

## Time-Critical Decision Modeling And Analysis

• Causal Modeling And Forecasting
• Smoothing Techniques
• Box-Jenkins Methodology
• Filtering Techniques
• Modeling Capacity Planning with Time Series
• Cost/Benefit Analysis
• Modeling for Forecasting
• Stationary Time Series
• Statistics for Correlated Data
5

## Causal Modeling And Forecasting

• Modeling the Causal Time Series
• How to Do Forecasting by Regression Analysis
• Predictions by Regression
• Planning, Development, and Maintenance of a Linear Model
• Trend Analysis
• Modeling Seasonality and Trend
• Trend Removal and Cyclical Analysis
• Decomposition Analysis
6

## The Components of a Time Series

• Using Smoothing Methods in Forecasting
• Measures of Forecast Accuracy
• Using Trend Projection in Forecasting
• Using Regression Analysis in Forecasting
• The Components of a Time Series
• Using Smoothing Methods in Forecasting
• Measures of Forecast Accuracy
• Using Trend Projection in Forecasting
• Using Regression Analysis in Forecasting
7

## Smoothing Techniques

• Moving Averages and Weighted Moving Averages
• Moving Averages with Trends
• Exponential Smoothing Techniques
• Exponentially Weighted Moving Average
• Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing Technique
• The Holt-Winters’ Forecasting Technique
• Forecasting by the Z-Chart
8

## Special Modeling Techniques

• Neural Network
• Modeling and Simulation
• Probabilistic Models
• Delphi Analysis
• System Dynamics Modeling
• Transfer Functions Methodology
• Testing for and Estimation of Multiple Structural Changes
• Combination of Forecasts
• Measuring for Accuracy
9

## Probability Theory And Statistics

• Theory of Queuing
• Familiar queuing problems
• Characterizing a queue
• Basic metrics
• Throughput, busy time, utilization, response time, load, service time
• Response time relationships for some simple queues
• Distribution functions
• Combination of random variables
• Time Interval Distributions
• Exponential distribution
• Steep distributions
• Flat distributions
• Cox distributions
• Other time distributions
• Observations of life-time distribution
10

## Data Collection Approaches

• Trend analysis
• Interpretation
• Key Concepts and Methods
• Collecting information
• Why Do Trend Analysis?
• Preparing to Analyze Trend Data
• Analysis of Trend Data
• Presentation of Trend Data

## Encarta Labs Advantage

• One Stop Corporate Training Solution Providers for over 3,500 Modules on a variety of subjects
• All courses are delivered by Industry Veterans
• Get jumpstarted from newbie to production ready in a matter of few days
• Trained more than 20,000 corporate candidates across india and abroad
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